If in 2003-2004, before and after the accession of the Baltic states into the EU, experts-builders, and the usual hard workers pulled orderly rows for the good life in EU countries, mainly in England, where nearly every building site can be found Latvians or Lithuanians , fewer Estonians, then fed 2006 and 2007 on the same stream flowed in the opposite direction. In the Baltic there was an acute shortage of construction workers, and even simple handyman was valued at a premium. The reason for this was a strong construction boom in all three countries, which provoked the Swedish banks giving loans to people left and right. Sleeping areas and cottage settlements grew by leaps and bounds, and the population, not worrying about the future, large quantities to go into debt for life. With the crisis, this "bubble" burst loudly, and prices collapsed.
Estonia
Buy residential property in Estonia can be literally any - legislation does not impose special restrictions on the nationality or ownership of the future property owner. Naturally, there are certain restrictions on residential property in the border areas and special areas or adjacent to strategic facilities, such as the U.S. Embassy, but they are quite tolerable and do not relate to the absolute majority put up for sale residential real estate.
Since foreigners are mostly much richer and more secure Estonians, the Estonian real estate companies and entire sectors of the economy are vitally interested in such liberalism. Among the foreigners, the vast majority of buyers - it's the Finns and Swedes, preferring to buy summer houses near Tallinn and in the "summer capital of Estonia," Pärnu, but the "sweetest" margin of shopping carried Russians or Russian-speaking citizens of the European Union and the CIS, which just love to buy an exclusive property Old Tallinn. Baltic nostalgia for the Soviet citizens of the former continues to bear fruit. In Estonia, there are dozens of companies that serve the interests of such persons solely on the issue of purchase of residential property, and then serve this property, most of the year stood empty. Equally addition to the theme of foreigners buying large residential real estate in Estonia it is through the purchase of real estate most often occurs subsequent recruitment of Russian citizens Estonian secret services. Thus, according to the FSB in the Pskov region in recent years, this recruitment was recorded in dozens of cases, recruiters are being blackmailed Estonian Russian owners of real estate in Estonia, "legislative issues," "material losses" and "Schengen blacklist" in the case of non-cooperation.
But back to the subject property in Estonia. In the past four years due to a marked reduction in domestic demand for residential property (economic crisis, which led to a decrease in real income of Estonians, the complication and rise in the issuance of housing loans, etc.) on residential real estate market was dominated by depression and boredom. More and more extended fund offered for sale of houses and apartments, all smaller the range of buyers. As a consequence, in 2009 - the first half of 2010, housing prices have reached a level of prices 2003-2005, that is the beginning of an economic boom. Since the end of 2010 the situation began to straighten, and the price per square meter - to increase. Thus, the average price of residential property in the spring of this year, returned to the mark of 1,000 euros. However, the number of proposed housing for sale continues to remain high: in Tallinn 6673 exhibited the property, including 632 private houses. It's apartments and houses in the different conditions and for a variety of prices. One thing is clear: the majority of vendors are no longer hopes to "make hay" on the huge demand "a la" during the economic boom of 2005-2007, and because property prices in Estonia is now more or less correspond to the logic of the situation.
Latvia
Experts estimate that over the medium term property prices in Latvia will grow within 3-4% annually. And the price of residential properties particularly successful premium, located mainly in Riga and Jurmala in 2011 could grow by 15%.
Factor that allows to say that the real estate market in Latvia has, and will continue to grow, is the inadequate supply of housing. According to the bureau Eurostat, per capita EU-27 accounts for 1,5 rooms. That is, the average family of Europeans - mother, father and two children - live in a 4-room apartment or holiday home. In Belgium, the Netherlands, Ireland and Malta have one resident has at least two rooms, but in Latvia there is always room for even one person.
Given inflation and the post-crisis stable growth in house prices, house prices in the primary and secondary markets in Riga and the Latvian industrial cities can only increase. True, the new boom will not happen: a modest increase in prices is projected - within 3 - 4% per year.
Comes to life in Latvia and the commercial area, which is associated with an increase in exports, which in some segments of the performance even better than in the pre-crisis years. The most intensive in this sense, developing the port cities - Riga, Ventspils and Liepaja, Jelgava and Valmiera and. But in this case Latvia lags behind other EU countries: for example, on one Rigan has an average of only 0.5 square meters of office area, and speaking of the Latvians on average, this is a matter of centimeters. The index of Stockholm and Copenhagen - almost 6 square feet of offices per capita.
The only area in which over twenty years of independence, Latvia has achieved fantastic success - it's squaring of shopping centers per capita. Then with the index of almost 600 square meters per 1,000 residents of the country and nearly 900 square meters per one thousand residents of Riga Latvia the same level as Denmark and Germany, but also ahead by about four times as Belgium. According to forecasts, this segment in the near term will remain the fastest growing. It is defined by a high proportion of consumer spending on food, as well as the high profitability of developers of shopping centers, recoup investments in such facilities over a period of 4 to 10 years.
In the short term, Latvia will be the primary market for buying real estate owned by the bankrupt.
Experts describe the rise in prices in most segments of the real estate market as a small, largely provoked by inflation.
The only segment with high demand - an exclusive, piece residential real estate. For example, a house or apartment on the first line to the seaside. There's not even get to give customers what they ask, for example, Muscovites want to buy an apartment or house in the neighborhood, saying they are friends and family bought a house in Nice, and on Rublevo Assumption highway. In Jurmala, unfortunately, these objects are rare. Rising property prices in the luxury and premium segments, compared with last spring is already around 10%.
It is predicted that house or apartment with good location in 2012 will cost the same as before the crisis of 2006 or 2007. 10-15% annual growth in the value of luxury housing in Riga and Jurmala each year for five years - it is reality. Other segments of the market is still rather passive.
Lodging in Old Town, in an attic overlooking the red tile roofs of the sea, or in a quiet, bourgeois city center, in a house built early last century in art nouveau style with stucco bay windows, heraldic symbols on the facade of stone and the Atlanteans, sustaining a balcony. Townhouse, apartment or an old outhouse in three minutes from the beach of Jurmala. Former estate of Baron or a house somewhere in the boonies, away from the urbanization. Segment of the premium real estate in Latvia offers hundreds of different investment options.
Cost objects of elite residential real estate in Latvia increased in 2004 - 2006, respectively, two years ago, dropped to the lower limit. As a result, such property can be bought for 50-60% of its pre-crisis value. This does not exist in Moscow or in London. Most buyers are interested in the capital city and Jurmala. While there are non-residents, which is attractive to stay away from urbanization, for example, in a cottage in a forest districts in hundreds or more miles from Riga.
Not the main argument, but an obvious plus for non-residents from third countries investing in the Latvian real estate purchase at least 142 290 euro (in the province - 71 140) - access to "investor visas". Obtaining a residence permit valid for 5 years gives the right of free movement on the territory of the Schengen countries. This right extends to the relatives of the investor. Such is not the way, in Turkey and Greece, which are positioned as a European investment platform.
Lithuania
Like the other Baltic countries, Lithuania has experienced in 2005-2008, the construction boom, the bubble is the beginning of the economic crisis burst noisily. In these prosperous years, when the economy each year records beat the average European indicators, real estate in all cities grew like mushrooms after rain. We built everything - new housing estates, cottages, offices, houses and entire villages. This growth has provoked a powerful Swedish banking capital coming into the country. Loans for housing were given almost everything, and all that was necessary - it's come to the bank and show that you have at least a little bit prosperity. Interest on such loans, compared with the same Russia (and the same principle of credit, it should be noted, were surprised residents neighboring Kaliningrad region) were minimal, and the money to buy an apartment without even gave out the first installment.
As a result, prices for the very real estate grew by leaps and bounds. At some point the price of an apartment on the outskirts of Vilnius began to exceed the price of the same in the center of Prague. All of this collapsed with the onset of the crisis. Since 2008, property prices have fallen more than 50%. This has created another problem. Part of the buyers, who have lost their jobs with the crisis, failed to pay on loans. The price of apartments has decreased so much that even if the bank pick up housing for non-payment and sold it "the hammer" on the streets persons remained owes the bank a tidy sum. Here is an example. At the end of 2007 two-bedroom apartment in a new residential area on the outskirts of Vilnius city towards the cost of Riga 305 000 LTL, or 88 500 euros. A young family or single person, even without a down payment, but had to work with the national average income, I may have to take credit for the purchase of such housing for a period of 40 years. In this case, in 2011 the same apartment can be bought for 45-50 thousand euros, and even bargain. And it will not be easy to trim, and full of furniture, appliances - TVs, refrigerators and even dishwashers and floor heating in the bathroom, if necessary. We assume that the buyer lost his job today. The Bank will select the property, and the former owner will owe him at least another 30-40 thousand euro, as from 2007 the body of the loan will most likely (depending on the type of credit) is not reimbursed and repaid interest only.
Such situations, and they were many in Lithuania, have provoked a local legislature raise the issue of establishing a physical bankruptcy. True, the banks, which play an important role in the country, actively resist the law, threatening that, in this case, the interest on the loans will be forced to contribute an amount of risk, which effectively bets.
However, back to the very quarters. During the building boom in the truest sense of built anywhere and Stakhanov pace. In many cities of Lithuania grew up entire neighborhoods as housing and office centers. It came even to the scandals. Back in 2007, at the disposal of a REGNUM got a report at that time deputy director of the Geological Survey of Lithuania Jonas Satkunasa "Nature, depth, land and man-made factors in the construction business," which was made at a private seminar for builders. According to the report, Vilnius district was built on land that is infected and is not suitable for life.
In 1987 at this place, and this just neighborhood on the outskirts of the city, which was mentioned above, ceased its operation Vilnius city dump. At the beginning of construction boom, a private construction company was allowed to self Mabilta Vilnius for the construction of landfills in the multi-storey buildings. All the buildings - of the twelve floors. Today, this quarter is already fully occupied. Basically - young families, not residents of the capital, and their visiting other towns or villages, which, naturally, did not know about the existence of on-site landfill quarter. So, the analysis of the soil at the time was made by Dr. Ricardas Tarashkyavichyusom of the Lithuanian Institute of Geology and Geography before construction even started. "The study found that most of the soil concentration of heavy metals" - the report says. Later geologists with the Ministry of Environment conducted a study and compiled the so-called security zone of the former landfill. According to the area and was granted a construction permit. However, this area does not coincide with the data indicated Tarashkyavichyusom in his study. "Many experts also doubt the reliability of the data on which the permit has been issued for construction", - said at the time Satkunas.
In turn, the Vilnius City Hall referred to the fact that the building permit issued by the previous administration of the city (at the moment - already before the last-position). Also noted in the municipality of the capital of Lithuania, according to the documents, the building is "fully and lawfully in the territory, recognized suitable for living." Here is a little sketch of the most accurately describes the state of the construction business the mid-2000s. The scandal with the built-up territory of the former landfill began with "the first brick." However, the main complaints about the construction company, who for five years, appeared regularly in the media concerning the quality of construction of the first houses. After a series of claims that the tenants of the first stage presented a construction company, Mabilta was forced to eliminate defects. With regard to same quarter of the territory of the claim did not arise. And now live a few hundred families, as gently spoken by indigenous inhabitants of the capital of Lithuania, "the dump" or "cardboard yard" - as a "cardboard" the color of homes, dubbed the area.
With regard to current trends in the real estate market, it is in the last year in the deep stagnation of constant decline, he began to waver. Back in April, real estate prices in the five largest Lithuanian cities (Vilnius, Kaunas, Klaipeda, Siauliai and Panevezys) on average declined by 0.2%. Most of this fact influenced the fall in prices in Kaunas at 1.1%. Meanwhile, in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius on the contrary prices grew slightly (0.2%). On an annual average prices, but Vilnius is still falling: in Kaunas at 4.5%, 3.1% in Klaipeda, Siauliai by 1.1% in Panevezys - 2%. In Vilnius the average annual growth was 2.3%.
Officially, the real estate prices in Lithuania since the end of 2007, when they reached an absolute record for Lithuania, until January this year in Vilnius, decreased by 40.1% to 33.2% in Kaunas, Klaipeda 45.5% in Siauliai by 44.6% and 45.9% in Panevezys.
In Lithuania, firmly believe - as they were worth in 2007, the apartments will no longer be never. To reach the same mark as in Estonia - one thousand euros per square meter, it seems impossible in Lithuania. Of course, now these prices in the capital of Lithuania, and in other cities, for example, Klaipeda, where house prices are traditionally higher than the capital there. But it is rather an exception, not the average.
No comments:
Post a Comment