According to analysts IRN.ru, for the first half of 2011 the dollar prices of real estate in Moscow, added about 10%, topping the mark of $ 5,000 per square meter. The index value of housing costs in June (average per month) amounted to 4986 dollars, at the end of the month (last week of June) - 5025 dollars. However, if we take into account that the dollar has lost over the six months about the same 10% (30-31 rubles per dollar at the beginning of the year to 27-28 rubles to fly), there is no real growth in the remains, said the study's authors .
"What price are more significant - in dollars or rubles? Do we need to ascertain the presence of growth in real estate prices in Moscow and Russia, or to claim that growth in general and not the entire year and the market stagnates? Simple answer to difficult, - the IRN . ru. - Speaking of, for example, an increase in oil prices almost doubled (from 60-70 dollars per barrel last summer to $ 127 at the peak of the spring), we mean the growth is in dollars, not rubles. And comparing dynamics of real estate prices in Moscow and Russia and other macroeconomic indicators, correctly assumed the dollar price. However, immediately catches the eye, which is almost twice higher prices of oil and 10% increase in cost per square meter is clearly not correlated. IRN.RU Analytical Centre is no longer repeatedly pointed out that a direct link between oil prices and property prices are not available ".
If you talk about pricing for those who are going to buy an apartment in Moscow or the Moscow region, in this case indicative of ruble prices, though often the Moscow real estate is sold for dollars and the euro, added the study's authors. But in terms of consumer demand and the level of solvency of the population ruble prices show that grow nowhere else. However, there are certain segments of the real estate market in which prices denominated in the last six months have shown steady growth, but they are few. First of all, it's new buildings in Moscow and Moscow region economy class, which over the year have increased in price 10% -15% -20% even in the absence of an explicit general market growth due to advancement of construction, infrastructure development, neighborhood, and often record-low initial price.
If we talk about price movements in the districts and districts for the first half of 2011 as a whole, the more added value in still relatively cheap sleeping areas and districts. Thus, the leaders of growth in South-Eastern District, North-Eastern District and all areas outside Moscow. Among the areas of: Novokosino, Kosino-Ukhtomsky, Kozhukhovo, Printers, Teply Stan, the Ryazan Avenue, Kurkino, Molzhaninovsky, Ostankino, Rostokino, ENEA, Novo-Peredelkino, Vnukovo, Medvedkovo Zhulebino, Nekrasovka, Marino, Kapotnya and others. At the same time an outsider was the Central District and the North-West District and Northern District. Prestigious and catching up the center of Moscow at the price of housing and the Western District of South-West district - in middle positions. Among the outsiders for the district of Moscow in the 1st half were Polezhaevskaya, Jogging, Tverskaya, Pushkinskaya, Chekhov, Mayakovsky, Okhotny Ryad, Kitai-Gorod, Kuznetsky Most, Lubyanka, the Revolution Square, the Theater, October, Dobrininskaya Paveletskaya, Serpukhov, Baumanskaya Basmanny, Don, Leninsky Prospect, Shabolovskaya and others.
"Rule" build less - prices are higher "in Moscow is no longer working!" Even before the crisis began in 2008, nobody could have predicted that the volume of construction in the capital will be reduced so much. As, however, few believed that Moscow's real estate may fall in value. But the fact is that now the volume of construction in the capital three times lower than before the crisis, and a half times lower construction volumes in the whole country, and housing prices do not hurry to grow up to pre-crisis levels. And the reason is quite obvious: real estate found itself in the limit of price elasticity, divorced from the real capacity to pay the bulk of the real buyers, even if the mortgage. So even if you do not build, it will still be able to buy only one and it would be enough for the proposals of the secondary market, "- noted the study authors.
And if these processes continue, there will be increasing inflation commonplace due to the growth of money supply, then the property goes up in price next to it. Moscow real estate has the potential to further add to costs at the expense of cross-flow of investment money from the stock market correction in the wake of the latter, as well as through the development of campaign money. Therefore, the experts predict that the housing in Moscow and the Moscow region for the coming year has a chance to grow by another 15% -20% -25%. But, as already noted more than once, like higher prices at the time frenzy, the investment money and to limit the ability to pay the real demand is fraught with a subsequent drop in prices and stagnation, as has already occurred in 2007, after record growth and after the 2005-2006 crisis in the late 2008 and in 2009.
Have resolved for these 3 years the very problems that gave rise to the crisis? Whether productivity has increased, there are companies and officials to work more efficiently, and the population - live better and earn more? For many direct and indirect indicators - no, analysts say. Problems are not solved, and the "hidden under the carpet." So, it is necessary to stop printing money to support another, and all can once again roll down, including oil prices, and foreign investment in Russia. But in this scenario will dry up and the amount of liquidity in our country, and budget surpluses, which can accumulate the real estate market of Moscow and Russia to increase the cost per square meter.
